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☆ US raises concerns about cozying relations between Russia and North Korea
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-13 | by ( Katie Bo Lillis | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

In January, high-ranking North Korean and Russian diplomats met in Moscow in advance of what North Korean state media says is a forthcoming visit to Pyongyang by Russian President Vladimir Putin himself — his first in more than 20 years. Trade with Russia could also further weaken the sanctions regime the US has placed on North Korea, also accelerating its economy and potentially bolstering its arms development program. As always with North Korea, deciphering how the hermit kingdom may respond is like reading chicken bones. For weeks, a blog post on an influential North Korea watchers website written by two former analysts circulated within the US government. If anything, some analysts believe, North Korea’s public statements signal that North Korea is abandoning its reunification policy in pursuit of peace on the peninsula.

Persons: Kim Jong, Vladimir Putin, —, Biden, Jake Sullivan, Kim, ”, “, ” Jeffrey Lewis, Lewis, ” Lewis, Sydney Seiler, Seiler, ” Kim doesn’t, “ That’s, “ Kim, it’s, We’re, ” Seiler, we’ll Organizations: CNN, North, Russia, Intelligence, White House, DPRK, Democratic People’s, Middlebury Institute of International Studies, North Korean, National Intelligence Council, US Locations: North Korea, Washington, South Korea, Russia, Moscow, Pyongyang, Russian, Korea, Democratic People’s Republic, Soviet Union, United States, North, China, Beijing, Japan, Korean

☆ As Biden and Xi gear up for a high-stakes meeting, experts have low expectations
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-12 | by ( Megan Lebowitz | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

Senior U.S. administration officials detailed a handful of agenda items during a briefing with reporters. "We're not talking about a long list of outcomes or deliverables," a senior administration official told reporters. Even in recent days, Chinese officials were hesitant to confirm that Xi would attend the meeting with Biden. Biden and Xi's meeting also comes in the lead-up to Taiwan's 2024 presidential election in January, followed by the U.S. election. "We've been clear publicly and privately that interference in the Taiwan election is something we're extremely concerned about," a senior administration official said.

Persons: Xi Jinping, Joe Biden, Xi, Colleen Cottle, Jude Blanchette, They've, Thomas Fingar, Fingar, Biden, Wang Wenbin, Karine Jean, Pierre, Jean, Oriana Skylar Mastro, Ely Ratner, Ratner, We've, we've, Li Shangfu, Li, David Sacks, Sacks, Xi's Organizations: Global China, Atlantic Council, Senior, Center for Strategic, International Studies, Stanford University, National Intelligence Council, White, U.S ., American Enterprise Institute, NBC News, Defense, Biden, China, Council, Foreign Relations, U.S, Washington Locations: Nusa Dua, Indonesian, Bali, U.S, China, Taiwan Strait, South China, San Francisco, People's Republic of China, Taiwan

☆ Newly declassified report shows U.S. intelligence community remains divided over likely origin of Covid
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-24 | by ( Zoë Richards | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

(L-R) Defense Intelligence Agency Director Lt. Gen. Scott Berrier, Director of the National Security Agency Gen. Paul Nakasone, Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines, Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines, CIA Director William Burns and FBI Director Christopher Wray testifies during a House Select Committee on Intelligence hearing concerning worldwide threats, on Capitol Hill March 9, 2023 in Washington, DC. The leaders of the intelligence agencies testified on a wide range of issues, including China, Russia, Covid-19 origins, and TikTok. "All agencies continue to assess that both a natural and laboratory-associated origin remain plausible hypotheses to explain the first human infection," the 10-page declassified report from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence said. But "almost all" intelligence agencies agreed that the virus wasn't genetically engineered, and all agencies agreed that Covid was not manufactured as a biological weapon. The spokesman added that "getting to the bottom of the origins" of Covid remains a top priority for the president.

Persons: Scott Berrier, Paul Nakasone, National Intelligence Avril Haines, William Burns, Christopher Wray, Covid, Joe Biden Organizations: Defense Intelligence Agency, National Security Agency, National Intelligence, CIA, Capitol, Intelligence, National Intelligence Council, Department of Energy, Wuhan Institute of Virology, Wuhan Institute, Virology, White House National Security Council Locations: Washington ,, China, Russia, Covid, Wuhan, U.S

☆ Chairman of the House panel probing Covid's origins says lawmakers haven't 'seen all that we want to see' but they're following 'the breadcrumbs'
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-05 | by ( Sarah Al-Arshani | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The US Energy Department reportedly said with low confidence a lab leak likely caused COVID-19. Other agencies have suggested alternative theories caused the virus, including animal transmission. The chair of a House panel investigating Covid's origins said they have more questions than answers. Wrenstrup said it's "important to find the origins of Covid" but the committee is still unclear on the cause, since different agencies have their own theories. "What we are trying to do is to follow the breadcrumbs, if you will," Wrenstrup said.

☆ A newly reported classified US government missive on the lab leak theory shows we still don't know where COVID-19 came from
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-26 | by ( Katie Balevic | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

A memo suggested that the Energy Department has 'low confidence' the coronavirus came from a lab leak, per WSJ. Intelligence officials remain split on whether the virus occurred naturally or came from a lab. However, agencies have found that both theories about a natural occurrence and a lab leak remain possibilities, per the New York Times. Sullivan said there are a "variety of views in the intelligence community," but that several agencies have said they "just don't have enough information to be sure." But, right now, there is not a definitive answer that has emerged from the intelligence community on this question," Sullivan said.

☆ Putin's KGB past is key to grasping what he might do next in his failing Ukraine war, ex-spies say
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-24 | by ( John Haltiwanger | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +13 min

Putin's time in the KGB helps explain his worldview and brutal approach to warfare, ex-spies say. As Western intelligence agencies vie to stay two steps ahead of the Russian leader and get inside his head, peering into Putin's KGB past may offer clues on what he's thinking. "Putin's KGB background tells us a lot about how he thinks and how he sees the war. He is a creation of the KGB, and the KGB was a terrorist organization," John Sipher, a former CIA officer who served in Russia, told Insider. The Ukraine war has seen Putin and his propagandists make a series of assertions — ranging from plausible to preposterous — to justify Russia's unprovoked invasion of Ukraine.

☆ Putin is 'still convinced he can prevail' in Ukraine, and other nearby countries 'could be at risk of attack' if he wins, top Russia experts warn
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-15 | by ( John Haltiwanger | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The outcome of the Ukraine war will determine the safety of the wider region, Angela Stent and Fiona Hill warn. Putin's "appetite for expansion would not stop at the Ukrainian border" if Russia wins, they said in a new op-ed. They warned that nearby countries like Poland and Finland could face attack if Russia prevails. "Even now, after a year of carnage, Putin is still convinced he can prevail," Stent and Hill wrote in a new op-ed for Foreign Affairs. Putin has often pointed to Russia's imperial past when offering justifications for the war in Ukraine, at one point likening himself to Peter the Great.

☆ Putin's time in the KGB taught him 'how to lie' and to think like a terrorist, ex-spies say
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-05 | by ( John Haltiwanger | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +13 min

Putin's time in the KGB helps explain his worldview and brutal approach to warfare, ex-spies say. A former KGB agent told Insider the biggest thing Putin learned from the Soviet spy agency was "how to lie." But ex-spies and Russia experts told Insider that Putin's time in the KGB — the Soviet Union's primary and much-feared security agency — played an instrumental role in shaping his mindset. "Putin's KGB background tells us a lot about how he thinks and how he sees the war. He is a creation of the KGB, and the KGB was a terrorist organization," John Sipher, a former CIA officer who served in Russia, told Insider.

☆ Top Russian generals frustrated by humiliating losses mused about nuking Ukraine — but US intelligence isn't sure what to make of it
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-02 | by ( Jake Epstein | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Russian generals have reportedly deliberated using tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine. Because of this, some within the US intelligence community are less concerned that Russia is preparing to use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine, the report said. The New York Times was the first to report on the new US intelligence about tactical nuclear weapons conversations among Russian generals. Notably, it's ultimately up to Putin whether or not Russia uses a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine. The country's nuclear doctrine states only the president can make the decision to use nuclear weapons.

☆ Putin's nuclear threats are stirring fears of a nightmare scenario. Here's what's in his arsenal and what could happen if he orders the unthinkable.
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-13 | by ( John Haltiwanger | Charles R. Davis | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +16 min

The use of a nuclear weapon is "directly tied to Russia's fate on the battlefield," one expert recently told Insider. Putin, who claimed to have placed Russia's nuclear deterrent forces on high alert just days later, has continued to remind the world of Russia's nuclear might in the months since. There are tactical nuclear weapons that are more than four times as powerful. At best, a single tactical nuclear weapon could destroy about a dozen tanks, Podvig said. Kristensen said during the ACA webinar on Tuesday that he believes it's unlikely that Russia employs nuclear weapons in Ukraine.

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